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The mainland government is using state machinery to build a red supply chain, which is the biggest threat to Taiwan's electronic exports. Among them, the semiconductor supply chain will spend 10 years to invest NT$3 trillion to develop, and the goal is directed at Taiwan's large electronics factory. The cool Taipei Computer Show, the gloomy blue light of Taiwan's boom and the sharp reduction of GDP growth rate this year by the Comptroller's Office reflect the power of the red supply chain to a considerable extent.

Exports fell by 11.7 percentage points in April, which was the key factor. The most worrying thing is that the number of electronic products exported from Taiwan to the mainland has dropped dramatically. In January-April and last year, the number of electronic products declined by 3.4 percentage points. The annual growth rate of exports from the largest category of "other integrated circuits" to the mainland dropped by 6.2 percentage points in April. Has the red supply chain really replaced Taiwan's electronic zero? Components?

In fact, the development of China's independent supply chain is not news for a long time. According to the statistics of the World Bank, the proportion of imported components in mainland China's exports has dropped from 60% in 1993 to 35% by 2012. The import substitution effect is remarkable.

However, the red supply chain is a long-term trend. Although it affects Taiwan's exports, it can not explain the collapse of electronic products exports in April. Hong Chunhui, industry consultant and director of the Institute of Industrial Intelligence of the CICE, pointed out that the decline in imports of electronic products in mainland China was due to the decline in demand for mobile phones in mainland China and the lower-than-expected export.

Hong Chunhui said that the decline in demand for mobile devices in emerging countries in Southeast Asia had led to less than expected growth in sales of white-brand mobile phones in mainland China, and combined with pressure from manufacturers to de-stockpile, the mainland had reduced imports of electronic components. Cai Hongming, deputy secretary-general of the Federation of Industry, agrees with this explanation, saying that although red supply chain has some impact, it is not too big. In the long run, the industry is still bullish on the growth demand for mobile devices in emerging countries. "The recent decline in demand is just a boom cycle," said Hong Chunhui, not a long-term negative factor.

Although the red supply chain is not the culprit of this export collapse, the mainland government's use of state machinery to build the supply chain is still the biggest threat to Taiwan's electronic exports in the future. The mainland government will invest NT$3 trillion in 10 years to develop the semiconductor supply chain, aiming directly at Taiwan's large electronics factories.

Cai Hongkun, director of the General Statistics Department of the General Accounting Office, warned that the mainland supply chain was already in progress and the impact was gradually emerging. "In 2008, only 50% of Taiwanese businessmen purchased machinery and equipment in China, and nearly 70% by 2013," Cai said with a slight concern.

Apple Watch's parts are less sophisticated than those of the iPhone. Some of Taiwan's supply chains have been replaced by China. Taiwanese manufacturers used to dominate the production supply chain of the iPhone 6, but some of the latest orders for the parts of the iPhone 6S have also been snatched by the mainland.

In any case, the relationship between Taiwan and the mainland has changed from vertical supply to horizontal competition, which is an irreversible trend.